Take the AutoFinanceNews.net 2013 Car-Sales Crystal Ball Challenge

I have to admit, when I came up with my estimate last January for the AutoFinanceNews.net 2012 Car-Sales Crystal Ball Challenge, I was a bit hesitant. At the time, all indications pointed to a 13-million-unit year. My prediction, on the other hand, topped 14 million units (14,099,841, to be exact).

But the thought that vehicle sales would climb less than 10% just seemed too low. The economy was on the mend. Credit was readily accessible. There was a lot of pent-up demand. Cars were getting old. And high used-car prices would bump at least a portion of the buyer base into new cars.

Sure enough, we broke through the 14-million-unit barrier in 2012, closing out the year at 14,455,270 units, according to AutoFinanceNews.net’s tally. Sales exceeded 1 million units in all months but January, and total volume was 10.3% off the 16.1-million-unit SAAR recorded in 2007.

So where does that put us for 2013? Just days into the new year, industry experts were already boosting their sales expectations. First I saw estimates of 15.1 million units, then 15.3 million, then 15.4 million.

As for my official guess for the AutoFinanceNews.net 2013 Car-Sales Crystal Ball Challenge, I’m going to stay on the high side again. Drumroll, please… 15,944,163.

Post your guess in the Comment box below, and we’ll see who’s closest come January 2014.

So who offered the prediction that came closest to the actual SAAR in 2012? Well, you are reading her post.

Tags: 2013, crystal ball challenge, new car, saar, sales

4 members like this

Comment by Chuck Smith on January 8, 2013 at 3:06pm: Congrats Marcie!!

I'll go with 15,298,312

Comment by Chas Roscow on January 8, 2013 at 3:20pm: As you know, the US lost its #1 position for auto sales to China during the last recession. I just returned from my attic where I keep my crystal ball. It says that due to "pent up demand", election/fiscal cliff behind us, the need for MFGs to continue to employ people, stable gas prices for them there trucks, replacing Hurricane Sandy units, upgrading aging fleets, and continued low rates....The Tactical Crystal ball says:

17.5 million units. A US record. Even more in 2014....the ball was fuzzy...I think it said 18.5 million.

Congrats to Marcie for being so darn clairvoyant last year.

Comment by Nikki Mascali on January 8, 2013 at 3:35pm: Well, I don't think I can be as bold as Chas, but I'm going to say 16,233,052. On the button!

Comment by Lisa Bundy on January 8, 2013 at 4:06pm: Marcie, it's always good when the economy beats you by a few more sales. I am feeling optimistic as well, I definitely think that as consumer demand returns,and financing and leasing options are strong we should see........16, 382,994, give or take a few.

Comment by Mark Humphrey on January 8, 2013 at 4:59pm: I do like the enthusiasm of some of our fortune tellers on this forum but I'm going with a more modest forecast of 15,450,214 (~+7% vs 2012) give or take a car.

Comment by Ricky Beggs on January 8, 2013 at 8:33pm: What a year for 2012! Apparently only Marci had the marekt intelligence to push the growth we realized in 2012. At Black Book we look for growth in 2013 but at about half the increase 2012 brought over 2011. We feel 15,298,765.Ricky Beggs

Comment by Erik Eklund on January 9, 2013 at 9:57am: As we are seeing more new wholesale lenders entering the market, there has to be some belief that there is new market share to grab and not just the hope of taking it away from others already established. Also, all the major manufacturers are speeding up their refreshes in hopes of making consumers feel like their current car is already obsolete. As such, I'd predict roughly a 10% increase over last year's 14.5. I'll go with 15,973,023.

Comment by Scott J McKim on January 9, 2013 at 10:34am: 15,012,709

Comment by Marcie Belles on January 9, 2013 at 11:11am: Thanks for the guesses, everyone. Keep them coming. It should be an interesting year -- so many varying estimates here.