Used-car sales dip 1%, supply builds

Used-vehicle retail sales slowed and supply tightened toward the end of 2025 as buyers held off on purchases amid affordability and credit challenges. Sales at Week 49 were down about 1% compared with the corresponding period in 2024, Jeremy Robb , interim chief economist at Cox Automotive , said during the company’s Jan. 8 fourth-quarter Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index call. Used vehicle values inched up 0.4% YoY in December. However, used-vehicle retail sales on a year-to-date basis were up about 2%, “helped by strong performance over the summer months,” Robb said. Used-vehicle sales slowed in recent months, largely because consumers faced higher costs for health care and everyday expenses, Jay Slingerland , national sales director for Credit Union Leasing of America and vice president of Corunna, Mich.-based Slingerland Chrysler Dodge Jeep Ram Fiat , told Auto Finance News. “The used buyers aren't out there right now, and that's kind of shocking,” he said. “All the analysts are saying the used market is going to be good in Q1 ... but used has been down the past 120 days. It has not been that shining star that it was previously.” Part of the challenge is lenders have had to tighten credit standards for loan-to-value ratios or other buying criteria on vehicles that are 4 to 7 years old, Slingerland said, citing CULA trends. “The credit unions are not as aggressively purchasing the older cars like they once were,” he said. Used-vehicle retail sales are projected to land at 20.3 million units in 2026, down 0.7% year over year, according to Cox data. Total used-car sales are expected to drop 0.9% YoY to 38.3 million units. CPO sales grow Some manufacturers saw increased certified pre-owned vehicle sales in 2025 as consumers opted for lower prices on newer used cars. Sales of Toyota Certified Used Vehicles increased about 7% YoY in 2025 to about 339,000 units, David Christ , group vice president and general manager of the Toyota Division at Toyota Motor North America, told AFN . “We’re expecting growth again [in CPO] in 2026,” he said. “It’s a good option for customers who want a reliable but more affordable car. We've also seen customers who stay in the lineup but buy a less expensive car.” Mazda ’s CPO sales also rose 14% YoY in December to 6,787 units, according to the OEM’s sales report. Days’ supply increases Meanwhile, used-car inventory increased to 51.3 days’ supply at the end of 2025, up two days YoY, Cox Auto’s Robb said, noting supply remains below historical long-term averages for yearend. [caption id="attachment_58358067" align="aligncenter" width="778"] (Courtesy/Cox Auto)[/caption] Shift toward EVs Off-lease vehicle supply in the used market is expected to shift toward EVs as more come back to market, Robb said. “Off-lease maturities are the single largest supply source for the used-vehicle market,” he said. “The recent decline in lease maturities has constrained overall used-vehicle supply, and that's all about the change.” [caption id="attachment_58335364" align="aligncenter" width="1024"] Photographer: Matthew Hatcher/Bloomberg[/caption] The volume of off-lease vehicles, which slowed for several years due to a decline in lease rates during the pandemic, is expected to be down in the first quarter but climb beginning in Q2, with a projected increase of 3% YoY, Robb said. “The second half of the year should be higher by about 23% on average, as we lapped the depressed levels from 2025." EVs are expected to make up 12% of lease maturities in 2026 compared with 5% in 2025, “driven by a surge in EV leasing over the past two years when federal incentives were available and while new EV lease penetration rates were climbing higher,” he said. “As we move into 2027 and beyond, off-lease EVs will become a major supply input into the used marketplace and could end up being around 23% of all off-lease units by the time we hit 2028.” Auto Finance News will present multiple invaluable events for industry professionals in 2026, starting with Auto Finance Summit East and Auto Finance Capital Summit in May. To see event agendas and register, visit autofinance.live .

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Used-car sales dip 1%, supply builds

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